Politics· United States
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- 26%Jon Ossoff
- 15%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 10%Gavin Newsom▲ 0.6 pts
- 6%Josh Shapiro
Loading…
What prediction markets price for the questions in the news, and the dated next steps our reporting points to. Updated every few minutes.
12.4%
Watchful
Average probability traders give 25 escalation questions (strikes, invasions, clashes, coups), weighted by trading activity.
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?
November 30
30%
▼ 20.5 ptsVenezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
December 31, 2027
61%
▲ 20.0 ptsHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.00%
61%
▼ 19.0 ptsWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.5%
7%
▼ 18.9 ptsWho will Trump meet with by November 30?
Elon Musk
92%
▲ 17.5 ptsHoward Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by...?
November 30
19%
▼ 17.0 pts8%
▼ 1.0 ptscloses 1 Jan 2027
3%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
closes 1 Jan 2027
3%
closes 1 Jan 2027
6%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
closes 1 Jan 2027
2%
Our reporting
closes 1 Jan 2027
Probabilities are the prices traders pay for "Yes" on the Polymarket prediction market, not NewsWLD forecasts. Markets can be thin, wrong or moved by a few large traders. We do not link to the market or encourage betting.