Yes, the 2025 shutdown left October 2026 CPI without an annual rate

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not publish a 12-month inflation rate for all items or for core prices in its October 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on Tuesday 10 November 2026. The agency said it collected no survey data in October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, the formal term for a government shutdown caused by Congress not passing funding.

That makes the claim, carried in headlines both before and after the release, accurate: the 2025 shutdown means there is no official annual CPI inflation rate for October 2026. The gap applies to most of the index, not all of it, and BLS still published the monthly figures that markets and the Federal Reserve watch most closely.

Where the claim appeared

On 9 November, the day before the release, the markets site investingLive ran a preview headlined "US CPI preview: 43-day shutdown leaves no official annual rate as monthly pace seen easing." It said the gap would cover both the all-items and core series.

After the release, Bob Weeks of the Wichita-based site Voice For Liberty published an explainer dated 11 November under the title "Prices Rose 0.4% in October. The Government Can't Give You an Annual Rate, and Here's Why." The body of that article is more precise than its headline. It says BLS cannot publish a 12-month rate "for most of the index" and that outside annual estimates "are estimates, not BLS figures."

What BLS said

The October 2026 release (USDL-26-1685) states that "BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations." The agency said it cannot publish 12-month percent changes where October 2025 data are unavailable, and that this applies to most CPI series.

The shutdown ran for 43 days, from 1 October to 12 November 2025, according to investingLive, which said BLS never published an October 2025 CPI report. Without a year-earlier index, there is nothing official to measure October 2026 prices against.

On this point the claim holds.

What was published

The missing annual figure does not mean October inflation went unmeasured. BLS released the following.

Monthly changes. Seasonally adjusted, the all-items index rose 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, the same as in September and August. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase. Food rose 0.5% and energy 0.7%.

Index level. The unadjusted CPI for all urban consumers moved from 336.940 in September to 337.511 in October, according to Voice For Liberty's summary of the release.

Some 12-month changes. Where October 2025 readings existed, annual changes were published. Gasoline was up 37.4% from a year earlier, used cars and trucks were down 3.3% and new vehicles were up 0.7%, according to the release as reported by Voice For Liberty.

The last official all-items 12-month rate was 3.7% in September, a figure reported by both investingLive and Voice For Liberty. Voice For Liberty put August at 3.4%. investingLive put September core inflation at 2.6%.

How outside annual estimates are made

With no official October baseline, private economists have imputed one. investingLive cited FactSet median estimates of about 4% for headline and 2.8% for core. Voice For Liberty reported that Bank of America put the figures at about 3.8% and 2.7%, and that The New York Times calculated roughly 4% and 2.8%. investingLive said these figures rest on a small number of forecasts and on imputation choices that differ between firms.

BLS guidance, last updated on 17 December 2025, describes one method for filling a missing month. "If all parties agree", for example in a contract tied to CPI, the missing value can be approximated as the geometric mean of the index values on either side. BLS says such figures "cannot be interpreted as official CPI series" and that percent changes based on them are unofficial estimates. Applying that method to the September and November 2025 indexes would be one way to produce an October estimate, but that is an illustration, not BLS guidance for this release.

Any annual October figure of around 4% therefore comes from outside forecasters, not from BLS.

Why the monthly numbers mattered more

Economists had expected 0.3% for headline and 0.2% for core, according to investingLive and Voice For Liberty, which cited surveys by Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. Both readings came in higher.

The Fed's policy rate range stands at 3.75% to 4.00%, and its next meeting is on 8 to 9 December, according to Voice For Liberty, which reported that futures markets priced roughly an 85% chance of a quarter-point increase. investingLive described the October report as the last CPI release before that meeting. KPMG's economics note on the release was titled "October inflation cinches December rate hike."

Voice For Liberty reported that the two-year Treasury yield rose about 0.2 percentage point to roughly 4.75%. Other factors may have contributed to the bond market move. investingLive also carried a headline about Fed Governor Christopher Waller raising the prospect of a half-point increase. NewsWLD has not been able to verify detailed market figures or the full set of drivers from primary market data.

Because US Treasury yields influence borrowing costs and the dollar well beyond the United States, a hotter monthly reading carries weight internationally even without an official annual rate.

Verdict

True. BLS did not publish headline or core 12-month CPI rates for October 2026, and the 2025 shutdown, which stopped October 2025 price collection, is the reason. Readers should note that the gap covers most series rather than all, that monthly figures and some item-level annual changes were published, and that annual figures circulating for October are private estimates.