ASEAN leaders open Manila summit with South China Sea and Myanmar in focus

Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) open their 49th summit in Manila on Sunday, 15 November, with the South China Sea, Myanmar's civil conflict and the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine on the agenda. According to drafts of the post-summit communiques seen by the Associated Press (AP), no breakthroughs are expected.

The three-day meeting at the Philippine International Convention Center runs from 15 to 17 November under the chairmanship of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said.

Who is attending

The DFA said at least 19 world leaders and heads of international institutions are expected. Marcos will be joined by the leaders of Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam, while Myanmar will be represented by a Foreign Ministry official, according to the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

Anadolu Agency reported that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney were among those who arrived on Saturday. The DFA said Carney, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will speak at the plenary.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on Saturday evening, the Indonesian presidential press bureau said. In a statement, the bureau described his attendance as a sign of Indonesia's commitment to playing an active role in strengthening regional cooperation.

Trump joins on the final day

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend an ASEAN-US special summit on 17 November, according to the DFA. AP reported, citing Philippine officials, that Trump will land with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday afternoon, after the main ASEAN meetings have ended and the chairmanship has passed to Singapore. Officials told AP he will join three meetings that night, including a gathering of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Japan, Australia and India.

China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, who will meet ASEAN leaders on Monday but leave before Trump arrives, AP reported, citing the officials.

South China Sea and Myanmar

The Philippines said on 12 November that China and ASEAN had agreed on about 70 per cent of a proposed code of conduct for the South China Sea, with the agreement's scope, legal status and implementation still unresolved, CNA reported. Three Southeast Asian diplomats told AP that substantial progress had been made but that the pact will not be finalised this year, and that talks will resume next year.

Analysts quoted by CNA expected limited progress. "I'd expect a well-run summit with solid economic results, but not much of a breakthrough on the tough political files," said Andrew Mantong of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia.

On Myanmar, whose leader and foreign minister remain barred from the bloc's top meetings, the draft communiques urge "all parties to commit to an immediate cessation of violence, safe and unhindered humanitarian access, inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders and the unconditional release of all those unjustly detained," according to AP.

Economic agenda

ASEAN ministers signed a Digital Economy Framework Agreement on Saturday covering cross-border digital trade, electronic payments, data protection and cybersecurity, Anadolu Agency reported, citing PNA. Anadolu said more than 100 outcome documents are expected during the summit. The Philippines will hand the rotating chairmanship to Singapore at the closing ceremony on Tuesday, the DFA said.